Tuesday 11 August 2020

Let's not get over confident

Having enjoyed self finding a great bird, patch and county tick, and then getting double the value from predicting it, would it be too much to share a list of predictable species? I may have already done so before, but an updated perspective won't hurt.

Who cares, I'm fine with making mistakes and learning there is solid rationale to my ponderings;

Great Northern Diver - Berkshire's most frequent visitor never seen on DP, or over for that matter

Storm Petrel - Tricky species, but the randomness of the last 2 make it just as possible we can get one

Little Bittern - This sits in my Top 5 most likely due to the same reasons I already predicted Night Heron

American Bittern - It's not for fun that I include this, as Berkshire's best Bittern site we are tops for one

Spoonbill - This one is just for me having missed the 14th May 2007 pair, I reckon in the next 2 years

American Wigeon - We haven't had a big winter for Eurasian Wigeon since 2010, but I'm not convinced it's about flock size anyway, Top 3

Green-winged Teal - This sits in my top 3 most likely, our Teal count keeps rising and with the new marsh we could easily hit 500+ and score in the next 2-3 years, Top 3

Blue-winged Teal - Not high on the list, but nonetheless as possible as many other things

Ring-necked Duck - I am amazed we haven't had one already, Top 5 for sure

Long-tailed Duck - Perhaps on time span alone we should probably have had another, the only record was 1983

Lesser Scaup - Never say never, enough records for us to stand a good chance

Black Kite - We have a pretty good record for raptors, so why not

Baillon's Crake - A bit on the hopeful side, but no reason why not

Waders, waders, waders, surely nothing is off the table?

Black-winged Stilt - Records nearby over the last 2-3 years, we're next right!?

Stone Curlew - Random, but always possible and almost certainly flew over already at night

Kentish Plover - How they would come running and again why not us

American or Pacific Golden Plover - I only thought of this due to our fly over this Eurasian this week, was it Eurasian though? We can never be sure can we?

Curlew Sandpiper - Assuming the Oct 2nd 1988 record isn't complete shite (oops) then we are overdue one big time

Pectoral Sandpiper - It's amazing what hasn't made an appearance, this is quite a shocking situation, surely it's about to change this year? Top 5

Lesser Yellowlegs - Oxon had one, why not?

Marsh Sandpiper - Oxon had one, why not?

Spotted Sandpiper - It's got to be a good candidate

Red-necked Phalarope - They do like bigger waters on the whole, but Moor Green had one

Arctic Skua - Fly over flock of 2005 will haunt me forever, maybe a sick bird will stay long enough one day?

Sabine's Gull - 1987 will haunt me longer, could it happen again?

White-winged Black Tern - Good old random will produce one not far from now

Caspian Tern - Just because I want it to happen

Whiskered Tern - Moor Green had one...

Long-eared Owl - Perhaps we've had it in modern times, but we should have worked harder 15 years ago when they wintered nearby

Bee-Eater - Come on, it's sunny the wind is from the South, tomorrow please

Hoopoe - What fun to be had with one on the golf course, then behind Lavell's

Red-rumped Swallow - I've had this in my top 5 for about 10 years, soon my friends, soon

Citrine Wagtail - I saw one at Fleet and with that in mind, I'm not convinced having Yellow's makes a difference...hopefully

Bluethroat - We got marshes and reeds

Great Reed Warbler - It was on my list before the Green Park bird and it remains in my good chance list

Savi's Warbler - Oxon had one this spring

River Warbler - I like them, what more do you need

Fan-tailed Warbler - Seems unlikely, but what the heck

Dartford Warbler - Should have had one already, random stuff

Marsh Warbler - Tricky expecting another, but it's never impossible

Aquatic Warbler - When it happens it's most likely going to be pulled out of a net, but maybe someone will get luckier than that?

Barred Warbler - Coastal only, still possible

Arctic Warbler - A good look for one can't hurt

Penduline Tit - Marshes and I'd really like one

Red-backed Shrike - Good chance

Snow Bunting - Somewhere at Lea Farm, or just minutes at the DAC beach

Serin - Fly over always possible

Ortolan Bunting - Fly over always possible

Little Bunting - Feeding station bird of course

Lapland Bunting - feeding station bird?

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