Monday 30 December 2013

2014 Year List January numbers

Looking into my available past records data, it looks likely January will score between 83 and 86 species.

In my endless spreadsheets for DP records, I now use a template list and use 4 categories to rate the likelihood of a species in any given month:

1 = We know this species is present
E = Expected (highly probable it will be seen)
G = Good Chance (multiple past records in this month)
p = Possible - (has/does occur but very infrequent)

So my January picture breaks down as

1 = 58 (I expect these on the 1st)
E = 16 (I expect these during the month)
G = 7 ( I look for and aim to all)
p = 23 (fingers crossed for any)

If I factor in 6 of the '23 possibles', for things like Raven, Chiffchaff, Barn Owl, Jack Snipe, Dunlin, Med Gull, maybe LSW, I'd match the record, but these and numerous others are not guaranteed. We should always be on the lookout to boost the month total, with the record January was in 2008 with 88, then 87 in 2011, 86 in 2012, a poor 83 in 05, 06 and 13.... I believe we can beat the record by 2-3.

What I think are tricky species to get on the 1st are : Mistle Thrush, Grey Wagtail, Lesser Redpoll, Little Grebe, Bittern, Little Egret, Nuthatch, Coal Tit, Barn Owl, Tawny Owl, Meadow Pipit, Skylark, Cetti's and this year Siskin are thin on the ground, no recent sign of Skylark, Meadow Pipit last on 15th, so maybe a fly over remains possible.

The park usually hits the 100 mark around the end March, to take on a good year list you need get nearly all of them.

Lets hope it doesn't flood us out for the first week, or we're all stuffed.

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